The Future of Work
Presented by : Eva Kagan
01.
An analogy to set the scene
02.
Artificial Intelligence – What does 2050 hold?
03.
The impacts of COVID on the world of work
04.
Careers: Assessing my relevance
05.
Careers: How to remain relevant
06.
A shift towards spirit and soul
The Wiseman and the chessboard
Understanding the power of exponential growth that we are experiencing can be explained by means of the following analogy:
A Wise Man who invented the game of chess, pleased the Emperor of his kingdom that he was offered any reward he wished
Understanding the power of exponential growth, the Wise Man asked for a seemingly modest gift: a grain of rice on the first square of the chessboard on the first day, two on the second, four on the third … with the doubling continuing every subsequent day until the final 64th tile on the chessboard was reached
The upcoming doublings would yield results that were almost unfathomable when considering the modest starting point; by the 64th tile, the number of rice grains owed would be roughly equal to the number of grains of sand found on Earth.
The Wiseman and the chessboard in modern terms
If we set the starting point as the 1960s, 32 doublings each at an interval of 18 months, brings us to the start of the twenty-first century.
As inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil notes, we have now entered the “second half of the chessboard” with respect to the development of computers and Information Technology, after which point exponential growth yields explosive results (Kurzweil, 2000).
What comes next will completely dwarf the past, and as these “changes happen faster than expectations and/or institutions can adjust, the transition can be cataclysmic” (Brynjolfsson & McAfee, 2011)
Moore’s Law – the AI reality
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly entering our daily lives. Look around and observe the change. Are we only seeing the change with highly manual labour? Or has this expanded into the space of knowledge workers?
The world in 2050 – will Robots take over?
Fast forward 20–30 years in the future and, based on current estimates and research, there are those who believe that robotic labor will have started to substitute human labor en masse across most sectors of the economy –
Fact or Fiction?
Employment in 2050 - Considerations
How will developments in AI affect employment by 2050? Considered two interconnected variables: the level of automation that AI will bring to the labor market, and how well the economy adjusts to this change helps to define our analysis. Experts are divided over this: Check vs Checkmate!
Possibilities:
Stalemate:
- The AI revolution is much smaller than expected and does not change the nature of work
- The economy does not need to adapt and employment in 2050 looks like what it does today
Check:
- Despite the wave of automation that AI brings about, the economy is able to shift and adapt
- Creation of new jobs replaces the lost ones
- The transition may cause some initial havoc in the labor market, but after a period of unease, stability will ensue
Checkmate:
- The AI revolution results in rapid job loss as
- The economy, governments, and individuals are unable to keep up.
- With the economy unable to adjust, there is a hollowing out of jobs resulting in mass technological unemployment and social instability
Impacts of the Industrial revolution – Undeniably positive!
Looking back at history always provides a good benchmark about future developments. The Industrial Revolution and mechanization were undeniably positive and uplifted out standards of living as well as provided greater job opportunities
About 90% of Americans worked in agriculture in 1800
Industrial Revolution and mechanisation led to 41% decrease by 1900 and then only 2% of workforce by 2000
- Mechanisation has improved lifestyles significantly
- Employment opportunities presented themselves across both skilled and unskilled labour
Will the impacts of AI be different to automation of the past?
The real debate behind the Check and Checkmate scenarios is centered around whether AI is just another general-purpose technology (GPT), which like steam power, electricity, and the combustion engine before it will alter societal progress but collectively raise the standard of living…
Technological speed and efficiency that mimics creativity and agency of humans is unfounded in history
Continuous improvement was never as fast
In the past increased output required increased employment. AI changes this economics model – cheaper (as scale grows) technology, greater output, less mistakes! Why need humans for many roles!
Past automation vs AI – a framework
Applying the following framework will provide some insight about the possible scenarios
Possible employment reality from the year 2030
Looking at current facts will paint a grim picture
COVID-19
The impacts that COVID has had on the world of work
The “Great Reshuffle” and its impacts on the job market
COVID-19 has changed the landscape of the job market. Millions of employees across the globe have resigned, be it against their will or intentionally. What has, however, become apparent is that people are now choosing their ways of working and portray quality of life as important as pay and benefits
Vast numbers of employees chose to resign from their jobs
Record numbers of vacancies and staff shortages in some industries (hospitality and healthcare)
Priorities have shifted – Career moves no longer based on Pay and Benefits
Compared to before COVID-19 pandemic, how likely are you to prioritize your health and wellbeing over work?
- It is clear that across all generations, people are morel likely to prioritize their wellbeing over work compared to the pandemic
What are the main reasons why people have quit their jobs during COVID-19?
- Personal wellbeing – 24%
- Work-life balance – 24%
- Risk of contracting COVD-19 – 21%
- Lack of flexible work hours or location – 21%
- Lack of confidence in leadership – 21%
Surprisingly, not receiving a promotion or a raise landed at #7 on the list – 19%
A drastic new focus for employees
The great resignation has led to the great reshuffle (of priorities). COVID-19 has resulted in a shift from career focus to me and my family focus. The amount of trauma and loss that our society has faced and the ability for us to adapt to remote work quicker than ever before, has meant that we are choosing to spend more time on our well-being and family than ever before
What are employees expecting from employers?
So, what are the impacts on careers?
The combination of Artificial Intelligence and a Post-Pandemic reality is having the following impacts
01.
The need for new skills is accelerating and shaping the way we study and define relevance
02.
Opportunities for upskilling and reskilling are on the decline
03.
The workforce has become more stressed and vulnerable
IT, Marketing, and HR workers, many of them facing sudden, substantial changes in the demands of their roles, are feeling the most acute pressure to upskill and reskill.
6/10 say COVID-19 and the resulting economic crisis have accelerated their need to acquire new skills
The pace of change is creating much anxiety
Between AI and the new pace of Technological advancement as a result of COVID-19, employee relevance and the face of jobs/ roles has become a source of anxiety for employees
When do you believe that your skills become obsolete?
Impact on Stress and Mental health
Careers
Accessing relevance in the market
Do I have any place in the Future of Work?
Although AI is going to play a significant part in future jobs and employment opportunities, there are specific skill sets that will always give humans the advantage. Understanding and nurturing these for ourselves and our children is critical to ensure relevance in the future
56 foundational skills that will help you to thrive in the Future of Work
The need for manual and physical skills, as well as basic cognitive ones, will decline, but demand for technological, social and emotional, and higher cognitive skills will grow
Having foundational skill sets will help fulfill the following 3 sets of criteria:
Add value beyond what can be done by automated systems and intelligent machines
Feel comfortable to operate in a digital environment
Continually adapt to new ways of working and new occupations
Do I have any place in the Future of Work?
Although AI is going to play a significant part in future jobs and employment opportunities, there are specific skill sets that will always give humans the advantage. Understanding and nurturing these for ourselves and our children is critical to ensure relevance in the future
56 foundational skills that will help you to thrive in the Future of Work
Demand for jobs in the near future - 2025
A snapshot of jobs that have increasing relevance in the Future of Work
Empirical facts about humans vs machines
Share of tasks performed by humans vs machines, 2020 and 2025 (expected)
- By 2025 the average estimated time spent by humans and machines at work will be at parity based on today’s tasks.
- Algorithms and machines will be primarily focused on the tasks of information and data processing and retrieval, administrative tasks and some aspects of traditional manual labour.
- The tasks where humans are expected to retain their comparative advantage include managing, advising, decision-making, reasoning, communicating and interacting.
Companies’ expected changes to the workforce by 2025
- Companies expect to restructure their workforce in response to new technologies.
- In particular, companies are looking to transform the composition of their value chain (55%), introduce further automation, reduce the current workforce (43%) or expand their workforce as a result of deeper technological integration (34%), and expand their use of contractors for task specialised work (41%).
Careers
Lets talk practically
Practically speaking – what can we do?
There are a many options at hand, from both a macro point of view and a micro perspective. Below are some discussion points
Final consideration
Preparation for Messianic era
Focus more on what’s really important in life
- Family
- Friends
- Spirituality
- Less stressful work
- Work from where you want to be as opposed to where the work demands you should be
Thank you
